Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5

● quote 6302 min ago
SportsCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $64.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $96.2KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
6.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution24Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder (NO)$36.7K@ 58¢·0x7f8e…4487

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$19
6h
−$37.3K
tracked
$37.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 7 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 6302 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 6341 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 5425 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-07-26 16:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for July 26 at 12:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays combine to score 8 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 4d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 4d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $32.3K gross
0xaa3c…56072 linked markets · $38 gross
0x61f6…e4972 linked markets · $30 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$19
6h$37.3K
24h$37.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.0¢
VWAP 24h42.0¢▼ below by 36.0pp
VWAP 7d42.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$37.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$5
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$1
5¢
← now
$0
0¢
$19

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$36.7K@ 58.0¢0x7f8e…4487🐋5 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
65.5¢$813.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
39.5¢$660.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
41.5¢$380.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
23.5¢$346.3Kpriority86Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$274.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
48.5¢$215.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?
0.1¢$206.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7f8e…4487Under$36.7K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.