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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $100.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $155.7KEvent: Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega
58.5¢
YES
41.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:78 trades$27.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY100 Thieves (YES)$25.2K@ 70¢·0x7e5e…7315

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$249
6h
−$463
tracked
$27.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$14 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-31 05:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant match between 100 Thieves and Sentinels in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 30 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against Sentinels. This market will resolve to "Sentinels" if Sentinels win the match against 100 Thieves. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3471…f17e2 linked markets · $1.5K gross
0x82dc…57002 linked markets · $1.1K gross
0xfdc0…4b852 linked markets · $179 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY 100 Thieves2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY 100 Thieves@ 71.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -16.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $4.0K → $1.8K · 53s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$249
6h−$463
24h+$24.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h68.5¢▼ below by 10.0pp
VWAP 7d68.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$32
75¢
$0
70¢
$25.3K
65¢
$146
60¢
$10
55¢
← now
$253
50¢
$2
45¢
$273
40¢
$1.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$10
25¢
$23
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUY100 Thieves (YES)$25.2K@ 70.0¢0x7e5e…7315🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels - Map 1 Winner
0.1¢$220.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner
91.0¢$65.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7e5e…7315100 Thieves$25.2K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.