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UFC Fight Night: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Main Card)

● quote 18 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $270.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $596.3KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Main Card)
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:178 trades$40.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGuilherme Pat (NO)$15.5K@ 29¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.8K
6h
−$7.2K
tracked
$40.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$15.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +70.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 18 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Steven Asplund" if Steven Asplund is officially declared the winner of the fight against Guilherme Pat at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Guilherme Pat" if Guilherme Pat is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Guilherme Pat@ 30.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $5.0K → $2.8K · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$4.8K
6h−$7.2K
24h−$7.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h75.6¢▲ above by 24.3pp
VWAP 7d75.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$6.0K
90¢
$1.5K
85¢
$16
80¢
$2.9K
75¢
$1.8K
70¢
$20.2K
65¢
$5.8K
60¢
$1.3K
55¢
$820
50¢
$46
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYGuilherme Pat (NO)$15.5K@ 29.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Talvez10Guilherme Pat$15.5K
BUY VWAP 29.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.