Nashville SC vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 4.5

● quote 4262 min ago
SportsCloses: 3 daysLiquidity: $56.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $124.0KEvent: Nashville SC vs. Atlético San Luis - More Markets
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution23Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$24.5K@ 98¢·0x8806…2e83

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$12.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.2K
6h
+$49.0K
tracked
$92.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 22 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 4262 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 4316 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.leaguescup.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Leagues Cup game between Nashville SC and Atlético San Luis, scheduled for August 9 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Nashville SC and Atlético San Luis combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on leaguescup.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$12.2K
6h+$49.0K
24h+$49.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h97.7¢▲ above by 2.2pp
VWAP 7d97.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$72.0K
90¢
$15.4K
85¢
$4.9K
80¢
$398
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLOver (YES)$12.2K@ 99.9¢0x8806…2e83🐋3 days ago
BUYOver (YES)$24.5K@ 98.0¢0x8806…2e83🐋3 days ago
BUYOver (YES)$11.8K@ 94.8¢0x8806…2e83🐋3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8806…2e83Over$49.4K
BUY VWAP 97.3¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.