Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros

● quote 59 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $566.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $230.8KEvent: Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
45.5¢
YES
54.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly32Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$26.1K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 100 min agoofficial metadata 61 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $25.2K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$25.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHouston Astros (NO)$14.8K@ 54¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$142
6h
−$9.9K
tracked
$26.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$25.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 59 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 100 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 61 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 18:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros, scheduled for August 2 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$142
6h$9.9K
24h$24.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.5¢
VWAP 24h45.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d45.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$26.0K
40¢
$94
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYHouston Astros (NO)$10.4K@ 55.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYHouston Astros (NO)$14.8K@ 54.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 10 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: SK Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$630.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$526.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: SK Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$464.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Pcific Esports - Map 1 Winner
100.0¢$347.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
44.5¢$281.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$274.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$215.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafHouston Astros$14.8K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Houston Astros$10.4K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.