PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?

● quote 124 min ago
Finance→CommoditiesCloses: 2 monthsLiquidity: $40.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $7.5KEvent: What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?

Indicative prices · 124 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

3.55¢
YES
96.45¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:12 trades$65 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 73 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$19.5K@ 96¢·0xc97b…47e5

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
+$10
tracked
$65

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote is 124 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 49 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 73 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xc97b…47e53 linked markets · $93.5K gross
0x3773…f0dd3 linked markets · $37.1K gross
ronm2382 linked markets · $33.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -0.7pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $5
6hYES · $10
24hYES · $2

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.55¢
VWAP 24h3.73¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d4.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$37.2K
0¢
← now
$29.5K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$19.5K@ 96.0¢0xc97b…47e5🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$14.2K@ 94.85¢
ronm2380xf66f…8e0c
🐋—4 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
2.05¢$14.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
1.85¢$12.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
28.5¢$264.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?
38.5¢$240.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
69.5¢$236.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
5.4¢$158.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
1.75¢$141.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
0.65¢$101.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xc97b…47e5No$30.7K
BUY VWAP 96.14¢·4 fills
ronm238No$24.7K
BUY VWAP 94.74¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.