Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?

● quote 25 min ago

Sports→Closes: 31 minutesLiquidity: $99Official 24h Vol: $115.6KEvent: UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)

14.0¢

YES

86.0¢

8.0¢

Spread

anomaly16Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution43Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%

24h sample:18 trades$62.4K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 39 min agoofficial metadata 25 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$35.2K@ 89¢·0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$156

−$54.3K

tracked

$62.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

8.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 25 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 39 minutes old.
•Spread is 8.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-16 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ian Machado Garry defeats Islam Makhachev at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x2f3c…6c2c2 linked markets · $293.0K gross

0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $170.2K gross

0x81a6…b93b2 linked markets · $40.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 89.0¢2h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $7 → $47 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$156

6h−$54.3K

24h−$52.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current14.0¢

VWAP 24h11.2¢▲ above by 2.8pp

VWAP 7d11.2¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢