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Texas Rangers vs. Athletics

● quote 95 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $225.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $336.1KEvent: Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
80.5¢
YES
19.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:140 trades$142.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 102 min agoofficial metadata 96 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$2.8K·3 wallets·$2.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$34.6K@ 60¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$8.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.8K
6h
+$88.7K
tracked
$142.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$2.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 68

Since latest large flow: +22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 95 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 102 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 96 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 22.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Athletics, scheduled for August 15 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Texas Rangers@ 59.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -40.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas Rangers@ 61.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Texas Rangers@ 61.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $13.3K → $940 · 20s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$8.8K
6h+$88.7K
24h+$108.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current80.5¢
VWAP 24h59.3¢▲ above by 21.3pp
VWAP 7d59.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
← now
$22
75¢
$1.3K
70¢
$24
65¢
$4.8K
60¢
$104.4K
55¢
$26.2K
50¢
$109
45¢
$138
40¢
$153
35¢
$54
30¢
$17
25¢
$3.0K
20¢
$133
15¢
$65
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$33.9K@ 61.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$34.6K@ 60.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYTexas Rangers (YES)$20.0K@ 60.0¢0xf668…5c69🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafTexas Rangers$68.5K
BUY VWAP 60.5¢·2 fills
0xf668…5c69Texas Rangers$20.0K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.