UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)

● quote 39 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $294.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $336.9KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Manoel Sousa vs. Richie Miranda (Lightweight, Prelims)

99.9¢

YES

1.0¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection91Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:98 trades$72.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 27 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$62.6K·6 wallets(2🐋)·$64.6K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYManoel Sousa (YES)$31.4K@ 75¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE

What the tape says

YES pressure: +$65.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

+$65.7K

tracked

$72.2K

6 verified profitable wallets: +$62.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 39 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 59 minutes old.
•Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolved

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-09 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Manoel Sousa" if Manoel Sousa is officially declared the winner of the fight against Richie Miranda at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Richie Miranda" if Richie Miranda is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Manoel Sousa1h ago

Outcome checks pending

ANTI CHASEBUY Manoel Sousa1h ago

Outcome checks pending

ANTI CHASEBUY Manoel Sousa1h ago

Outcome checks pending

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Manoel Sousa@ 75.0¢1h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$65.7K

6h+$65.7K

24h+$65.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.9¢

VWAP 24h75.3¢▲ above by 24.7pp

VWAP 7d75.3¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$2.6K

90¢

$325

85¢

$315

80¢

75¢