Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

● quote 59 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $561.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $643.4KEvent: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection54Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:112 trades$27.2K trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 65 min agoofficial metadata 60 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$5.0K@ 70¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$14.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$14.8K
6h
+$14.8K
tracked
$27.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$8.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 59 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 65 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 60 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-04 21:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket final match between Team Falcons and Team Liquid in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 4 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 2 against Team Liquid. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 2 against Team Falcons. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x04f6…f24a2 linked markets · $2.6K gross
0xdb55…51dd2 linked markets · $280 gross
GeorgeRe2 linked markets · $274 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $66$50 · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$14.8K
6h+$14.8K
24h+$14.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h66.9¢▲ above by 33.1pp
VWAP 7d66.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$36
90¢
$0
85¢
$8
80¢
$629
75¢
$0
70¢
$9.1K
65¢
$8.7K
60¢
$1.0K
55¢
$4.1K
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$204
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.