Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals

● quote 25 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $227.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $280.1KEvent: Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
36.5¢
YES
63.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets11Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution65Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:38 trades$165.5K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 29 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$6.0K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$54.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWashington Nationals (NO)$52.8K@ 53¢·Supremeleader75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$49.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$49.1K
6h
−$71.2K
tracked
$165.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$6.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 48

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 25 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 35 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 16:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, scheduled for August 9 at 12:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
purplegatto2 linked markets · $5.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Washington Nationals@ 57.0¢49m ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Cincinnati Reds@ 44.0¢49m ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Washington Nationals@ 57.0¢49m ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Washington Nationals@ 52.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $48.4K$88 · 17s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$49.1K
6h$71.2K
24h$71.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h49.0¢▼ below by 12.6pp
VWAP 7d49.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$21.7K
50¢
$4.4K
45¢
$133.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYWashington Nationals (NO)$52.8K@ 53.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYCincinnati Reds (YES)$24.0K@ 48.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYWashington Nationals (NO)$10.9K@ 52.0¢
ThornyDevil0xa759…1119
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYWashington Nationals (NO)$18.1K@ 51.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75Washington Nationals$70.9K
BUY VWAP 52.5¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Cincinnati Reds$28.3K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills
0x3dfb…abafWashington Nationals$24.2K
BUY VWAP 44.1¢·4 fills
ThornyDevilWashington Nationals$10.9K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.