LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner

● quote 26 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $655.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $319.2KEvent: LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

0.1¢

YES

100.0¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:125 trades$124.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 29 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $8.1K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$37.1K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLG2 Esports (NO)$14.4K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

YES pressure: +$14.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

+$14.4K

−$37.0K

tracked

$124.9K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$8.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 26 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
•Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-09 19:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Team Heretics and G2 Esports in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 9 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics" if Team Heretics win Game 1 against G2 Esports. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports win Game 1 against Team Heretics. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $20.2K gross

purplegatto2 linked markets · $17.1K gross

0xaea5…61632 linked markets · $14.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $283 → $17 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$14.4K

6h−$37.0K

24h−$37.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.1¢

VWAP 24h8.8¢▼ below by 8.7pp

VWAP 7d8.8¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

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