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Spread: Chiefs (-2.5)

● quote 17s ago
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $2.4MOfficial 24h Vol: $270.6KEvent: Broncos vs. Chiefs
48.5¢
Chiefs
51.5¢
Broncos
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection76Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$120.6K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBroncos$89.8K@ 51¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Broncos SETUP
What the tape says

Broncos pressure: $92.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$92.0K
6h
−$72.9K
tracked
$120.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Broncos · $89.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 72

Since latest position change: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Broncos or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-15 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Broncos".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 14 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $152.8K gross
BrotherObama2 linked markets · $74.0K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $42.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Chiefs@ 49.0¢10m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Broncos@ 52.0¢16m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Chiefs@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Broncos. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBroncos · $92.0K
6hBroncos · $72.9K
24hBroncos · $73.5K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Broncos fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h49.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d49.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.2K
45¢
← now
$116.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBroncos$89.8K@ 51.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYChiefs$18.1K@ 49.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Broncos$89.8K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
FeromontChiefs$18.1K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.