Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)

● quote 62 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $68.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $135.3KEvent: LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
85.5¢
YES
14.5¢
NO
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly48Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution67Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:11 trades$1.6K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 116 min agoofficial metadata 64 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYG2 Esports (YES)$1.0K@ 70¢·0xa08f…745b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$3
6h
+$1.5K
tracked
$1.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • Executable quote is 62 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 116 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 64 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Team Heretics and G2 Esports in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 9 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "G2 Esports" if G2 Esports wins 2 or more games than Team Heretics in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Heretics". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xa08f…745b2 linked markets · $2.0K gross
0x2903…92032 linked markets · $601 gross
0xe8e0…7eec2 linked markets · $80 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $17$42 · 31s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$3
6h+$1.5K
24h+$1.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current85.5¢
VWAP 24h70.4¢▲ above by 15.1pp
VWAP 7d70.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$26
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.