Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees

● quote 383 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $408.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $438.6KEvent: Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
0.2¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets54Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:177 trades$172.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 392 min agoofficial metadata 377 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$27.4K·5 wallets(2🐋)·$78.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$27.5K@ 45¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$10.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$10.2K
6h
−$282
tracked
$172.7K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$27.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 383 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 392 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 377 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 23:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, scheduled for August 12 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Supremeleader753 linked markets · $168.2K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $76.3K gross
0x5268…135d3 linked markets · $47.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Seattle Mariners@ 38.0¢7h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Seattle Mariners@ 45.0¢7h ago
15m INVALIDATED -40.2pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Seattle Mariners@ 46.0¢7h ago
15m INVALIDATED -41.2pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $186$117 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$10.2K
6h$282
24h+$933

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.2¢
VWAP 24h41.0¢▼ below by 40.8pp
VWAP 7d41.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$10.3K
70¢
$2.4K
65¢
$5.6K
60¢
$6.1K
55¢
$9.2K
50¢
$2.0K
45¢
$71.7K
40¢
$27.9K
35¢
$5.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$13.2K
0¢
← now
$19.3K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$27.5K@ 45.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYSeattle Mariners (YES)$22.5K@ 45.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$14.1K@ 55.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (NO)$14.6K@ 55.1¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Seattle Mariners$30.2K
BUY VWAP 45.1¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Seattle Mariners$22.5K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
Supremeleader75New York Yankees$15.5K
BUY VWAP 52.9¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026New York Yankees$14.6K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·1 fill
0x5268…135dSeattle Mariners$10.8K
BUY VWAP 48.8¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.