Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

● quote 82 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $264.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $333.1KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
27.5¢
YES
72.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:60 trades$155.9K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 88 min agoofficial metadata 87 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCleveland Guardians (YES)$19.5K@ 52¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$21.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$21.8K
6h
+$19.5K
tracked
$155.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$18.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 54

Since latest accumulation: -20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 82 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 88 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 87 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 17:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for August 13 at 1:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf4 linked markets · $114.6K gross
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $19.8K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $14.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Cleveland Guardians@ 48.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Cleveland Guardians@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -21.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Cleveland Guardians@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h INVALIDATED -27.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Detroit Tigers@ 49.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $392$13.1K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$21.8K
6h+$19.5K
24h+$23.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.5¢
VWAP 24h48.4¢▼ below by 20.9pp
VWAP 7d48.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$76.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYCleveland Guardians (YES)$19.5K@ 52.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYCleveland Guardians (YES)$12.3K@ 52.0¢
phonesculptor0xf152…64aa
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$14.5K@ 47.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafCleveland Guardians$19.5K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Detroit Tigers$18.8K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·2 fills
phonesculptorCleveland Guardians$12.3K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.