Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.
No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.
Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.
Data confidence 75% · priority 0
Since latest large flow: -2.0pp at executable prices.
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution. If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Price History
Signals Trend
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.