Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 14?

● quote just now

Crypto→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $28.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $86.2KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 14?

4.0¢

YES

96.0¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:18 trades$25.3K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$4.7K@ 96¢·0xe9c6…95c9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP

What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

−$3.1K

−$20.7K

tracked

$25.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$11.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 49

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-14 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Tttyh3 linked markets · $94.9K gross

0xf705…3ca74 linked markets · $47.4K gross

bearstodamoon2 linked markets · $23.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$3.1K

6h−$20.7K

24h−$22.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current4.0¢

VWAP 24h7.0¢▼ below by 3.0pp

VWAP 7d10.3¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

$1.3K

65¢

60¢