Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
YES pressure: +$5.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.
2 verified profitable wallets: +$719 YES-equivalent over 7d.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 71% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Team Heretics and Fire Flux Esports in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics" if Team Heretics win Map 2 against Fire Flux Esports. This market will resolve to "Fire Flux Esports" if Fire Flux Esports win Map 2 against Team Heretics. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.