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Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?

Sports→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $9.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $52.6KEvent: Italian Grand Prix: Driver Winner
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:4 trades$27.0K trackedsource coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 508 min agoofficial metadata 95 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$9.9K@ 100¢·tsekinming01

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-13 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
Outcome meaning

•If the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Sep 13, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Read full resolution rules

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix, scheduled for Sep 6, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Sep 13, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
hd7773 linked markets · $27.5K gross
tsekinming012 linked markets · $11.2K gross
Rentabar2 linked markets · $7.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $27.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h1.7¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d5.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$3.9K
20¢
$1.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$27.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hd777No$12.2K
BUY VWAP 97.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.