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Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?

● quote 34s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $127.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $277.6KEvent: Italian Grand Prix: Driver Winner
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly76Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:157 trades$50.6K trackedsource coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 56 min agoofficial metadata 25s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $3.2K net·7 wallets·$3.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$6.0K@ 60¢·0x5c43…30ed

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.1K
6h
−$9.0K
tracked
$50.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: YES · $3.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 56 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
Outcome meaning

•If the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Sep 13, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Read full resolution rules

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix, scheduled for Sep 6, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Sep 13, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
hd7772 linked markets · $15.4K gross
0xf802…d91d2 linked markets · $7.1K gross
0x09be…9c322 linked markets · $6.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.4pp · near-book depth $39 → $32 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $1.1K
6hNO · $9.0K
24hNO · $11.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h68.3¢▲ above by 31.7pp
VWAP 7d68.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$12.9K
90¢
$6.1K
85¢
$4.7K
80¢
$286
75¢
$1.7K
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$6.3K
60¢
$147
55¢
$6.1K
50¢
$2.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.6K
0¢
$7.5K

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.