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Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $1.8MOfficial 24h Vol: $944.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs
0.1¢
Spirit
100.0¢
MOUZ
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 20 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:233 trades$376.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MOUZ · $650 net·20 wallets(1🐋)·$154.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit$25.6K@ 56¢·t198

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Spirit pressure: $24.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$24.0K
6h
+$60.1K
tracked
$376.0K

20 verified profitable wallets: MOUZ · $650 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 20.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Spirit or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win Map 2 against MOUZ.

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 2 against Spirit.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between Spirit and MOUZ in the BLAST Open Porto Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win Map 2 against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 2 against Spirit. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Diabolical-Prize3 linked markets · $285.7K gross
Sunny244 linked markets · $140.8K gross
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $89.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY MOUZ@ 80.0¢20m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY MOUZ59m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 38.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Spirit1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Spirit DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $207 → $190 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor MOUZ. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit · $24.0K
6hSpirit · $60.1K
24hSpirit · $60.1K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. MOUZ fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h50.7¢▼ below by 50.6pp
VWAP 7d50.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$6.5K
90¢
$7.5K
85¢
$5.2K
80¢
$15.4K
75¢
$14.8K
70¢
$21.2K
65¢
$12.4K
60¢
$6.2K
55¢
$121.3K
50¢
$68.0K
45¢
$17.1K
40¢
$5.4K
35¢
$3.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$4.4K
20¢
$1.7K
15¢
$13.4K
10¢
$7.1K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$45.1K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLMOUZ$11.2K@ 99.9¢
GooldzX0x2525…3ddd
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYSpirit$11.3K@ 56.3¢
Hdisllbsj0x2a21…9853
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMOUZ$17.0K@ 47.7¢
Sunny240x2089…712e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMOUZ$16.0K@ 45.8¢
Sunny240x2089…712e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSpirit$25.6K@ 56.2¢
t1980x90aa…0dca
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSpirit$18.5K@ 55.0¢0xc323…0077🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sunny24MOUZ$33.0K
BUY VWAP 46.8¢·2 fills
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fMOUZ$31.2K
BUY VWAP 65.2¢·13 fills
HdisllbsjSpirit$27.1K
BUY VWAP 57.6¢·3 fills
t198Spirit$25.6K
BUY VWAP 56.2¢·1 fill
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fSpirit$19.1K
BUY VWAP 57.6¢·12 fills
0xc323…0077Spirit$18.5K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
0xe907…cff6Spirit$14.9K
BUY VWAP 75.4¢·7 fills
fkcvffcjtMOUZ$14.2K
BUY VWAP 35.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.