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Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

● quote 69 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $175.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $236.3KEvent: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
12.5¢
YES
87.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection47Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:32 trades$109.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 78 min agoofficial metadata 70 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $69.3K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$69.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPittsburgh Pirates (NO)$65.9K@ 60¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$52.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$52.0K
6h
−$57.0K
tracked
$109.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$69.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 72

Since latest large flow: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 69 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 78 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 70 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 25.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for August 14 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $34.1K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $5.8K gross
0xc3c3…eec82 linked markets · $5.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Pittsburgh Pirates1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Pittsburgh Pirates@ 63.0¢1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Boston Red Sox@ 36.0¢1h ago
Outcome checks pending

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$52.0K
6h−$57.0K
24h−$64.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current12.5¢
VWAP 24h41.9¢▼ below by 29.4pp
VWAP 7d41.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$18.3K
45¢
$1.1K
40¢
$81.6K
35¢
$8.1K
30¢
$384
25¢
$0
20¢
$26
15¢
$243
10¢
← now
$28
5¢
$1.0K
0¢
$3.4K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPittsburgh Pirates (NO)$65.9K@ 60.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Pittsburgh Pirates$65.9K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
Supremeleader75Boston Red Sox$16.5K
BUY VWAP 38.5¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.