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Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 8 minutesLiquidity: $156.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $110.2KEvent: Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty
58.5¢
YES
41.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%
24h sample:10 trades$28.9K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 85 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Liberty (YES)$18.4K@ 49¢·0xf668…5c69

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$28.9K
tracked
$28.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 85 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wnba.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 9 at 12:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Liberty" if the New York Liberty win the game by 10 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbdea…1db52 linked markets · $47.9K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $228 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY New York Liberty@ 55.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$28.9K
24h+$28.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h49.4¢▲ above by 9.1pp
VWAP 7d49.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$95
50¢
$10.4K
45¢
$18.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNew York Liberty (YES)$10.4K@ 50.0¢0xbdea…1db5🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNew York Liberty (YES)$18.4K@ 48.9¢0xf668…5c69🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf668…5c69New York Liberty$18.4K
BUY VWAP 48.9¢·1 fill
0xbdea…1db5New York Liberty$10.4K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.