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Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-08-22?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 15 minutesLiquidity: $208.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $243.6KEvent: Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC
10.0¢
YES
90.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority42Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%
24h sample:30 trades$69.3K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 14s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$14.3K@ 90¢·anon.1980.123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.1K
6h
+$9.0K
tracked
$69.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 72% · priority 42

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 11:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 22, 2026 If Hull City AFC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
sbsigner2 linked markets · $29.7K gross
0x82c8…a5db2 linked markets · $25.0K gross
tennischamp2 linked markets · $19.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$3.1K
6h+$9.0K
24h−$247

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current10.0¢
VWAP 24h10.0¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d10.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$59.3K
5¢
$10.0K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$14.3K@ 90.0¢
anon.1980.1230x4699…e03c
🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYYES$12.0K@ 10.6¢0x82c8…a5db🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x82c8…a5dbYes$15.0K
BUY VWAP 10.7¢·2 fills
anon.1980.123No$14.3K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.