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LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner

● quote 15s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.2MEvent: LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection39Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets10Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:318 trades$556.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 36s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $19.3K·11 wallets(3🐋)·$203.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDplus KIA (YES)$51.1K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$215.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$215.6K
6h
−$201.5K
tracked
$556.3K

11 verified profitable wallets: −$19.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: -39.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Dplus KIA and Gen.G in the LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Dplus KIA" if Dplus KIA win Game 2 against Gen.G. This market will resolve to "Gen.G" if Gen.G win Game 2 against Dplus KIA. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h2 linked markets · $106.2K gross
1111111111153 linked markets · $82.0K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $59.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Gen.G@ 40.0¢8m ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Gen.G@ 67.0¢38m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Gen.G@ 67.0¢38m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Dplus KIA38m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: YES DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $3.5K → $1.6K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$215.6K
6h−$201.5K
24h−$201.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h71.1¢▲ above by 28.8pp
VWAP 7d71.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$264.6K
90¢
$7.4K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$4.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$3.0K
60¢
$25.1K
55¢
$29.6K
50¢
$10.1K
45¢
$28.9K
40¢
$127.2K
35¢
$27.1K
30¢
$3.1K
25¢
$8.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$17.7K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLDplus KIA (YES)$11.0K@ 99.9¢
alexdinner0x141a…d05a
🐋—20 minutes ago
SELLDplus KIA (YES)$21.4K@ 99.9¢
solo888880xab44…7ffe
🐋—21 minutes ago
SELLDplus KIA (YES)$20.9K@ 99.9¢
NrNrfNrf20xf70f…3c97
🐋—24 minutes ago
SELLDplus KIA (YES)$51.1K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—25 minutes ago
SELLDplus KIA (YES)$21.9K@ 99.9¢
ColinHe0x6842…20d0
🐋—25 minutes ago
SELLDplus KIA (YES)$11.4K@ 99.9¢0x6b9c…704e🐋—25 minutes ago
SELLDplus KIA (YES)$13.7K@ 99.0¢
Finlandforevar0x0587…c40b
🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYDplus KIA (YES)$12.1K@ 99.0¢
IMAREALPERSON0x8c0b…7aa5
🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYDplus KIA (YES)$21.8K@ 99.0¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYDplus KIA (YES)$20.6K@ 97.5¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—27 minutes ago
BUYGen.G (NO)$40.7K@ 59.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYGen.G (NO)$11.8K@ 59.0¢
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

5e46hDplus KIA$49.8K
BUY VWAP 97.2¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Gen.G$41.7K
BUY VWAP 58.5¢·2 fills
zb8Gen.G$14.7K
BUY VWAP 52.7¢·5 fills
IMAREALPERSONDplus KIA$12.1K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANGen.G$11.8K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
NrNrfNrf2Dplus KIA$11.2K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.