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Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-22?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $142.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $826.1KEvent: Orlando City SC vs. Real Salt Lake
31.0¢
YES
69.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:133 trades$381.7K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 35s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $48.4K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$119.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$31.1K@ 56¢·kekasaur

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.6K
6h
+$139.7K
tracked
$381.7K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$48.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 25.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 22, 2026 If Orlando City SC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 45.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 56.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 45.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 57.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.6K
6h+$139.7K
24h+$136.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.0¢
VWAP 24h54.7¢▼ below by 23.7pp
VWAP 7d54.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$251.4K
50¢
$108.7K
45¢
$21.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$13.8K@ 46.0¢
justbusiness10x4956…e2c7
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$16.6K@ 56.0¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$27.2K@ 56.0¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$12.6K@ 56.0¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$31.1K@ 56.0¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$28.0K@ 56.0¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$11.3K@ 55.0¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$21.6K@ 55.9¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$16.0K@ 54.0¢
kekasaur0xf5f9…87b0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$24.0K@ 53.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$18.3K@ 53.2¢
justbusiness10x4956…e2c7
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kekasaurYes$173.6K
BUY VWAP 55.7¢·10 fills
UpTheBluesNo$74.2K
BUY VWAP 44.1¢·37 fills
0x076d…8d4cYes$24.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
justbusiness1No$21.4K
BUY VWAP 45.6¢·2 fills
justbusiness1Yes$18.3K
BUY VWAP 53.2¢·1 fill
gmtraderYes$11.9K
BUY VWAP 53.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.