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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $180.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $912.4KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
88.5¢
YES
11.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:89 trades$461.0K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$363.6K·4 wallets(2🐋)·$363.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$156.0K@ 52¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$39.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$39.7K
6h
+$314.0K
tracked
$461.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$363.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 69

Since latest large flow: -33.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-29 23:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for August 22 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Tampa Bay Rays2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Tampa Bay Rays2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Tampa Bay Rays2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 45.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $9 → $179 · 30s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$39.7K
6h+$314.0K
24h+$314.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current88.5¢
VWAP 24h55.5¢▲ above by 33.0pp
VWAP 7d55.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$1.4K
80¢
$2.5K
75¢
$0
70¢
$35.7K
65¢
$2.9K
60¢
$11.3K
55¢
$146.5K
50¢
$260.6K
45¢
$39
40¢
$7
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$23.2K@ 72.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—43 minutes ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$10.5K@ 55.2¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$47.2K@ 45.0¢
mentionmarket0xc3ac…b964
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$22.0K@ 54.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$156.0K@ 52.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$40.9K@ 52.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$16.5K@ 51.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$19.7K@ 55.7¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$39.0K@ 56.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$10.1K@ 46.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekTampa Bay Rays$326.4K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·12 fills
mentionmarketBaltimore Orioles$47.2K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Tampa Bay Rays$33.0K
BUY VWAP 71.4¢·2 fills
0xa0f2…1848Tampa Bay Rays$14.2K
BUY VWAP 55.5¢·13 fills
FeromontBaltimore Orioles$10.1K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.