Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A

● quote 19 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $519.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets18Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:344 trades$570.5K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 21 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$39.2K·5 wallets(4🐋)·$221.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYG2 (YES)$88.5K@ 65¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$34.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$34.4K
6h
+$52.8K
tracked
$570.5K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$39.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 19 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 18:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between G2 and M80 in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 12 at 8:10AM ET. This market will resolve to "G2" if G2 win the match against M80. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win the match against G2. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY G2@ 100.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY G2@ 82.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWSELL G2@ 69.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY G2@ 86.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 11.5pp · near-book depth $1$17 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$34.4K
6h+$52.8K
24h+$80.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h77.4¢▲ above by 22.5pp
VWAP 7d77.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$120.8K
90¢
$21.5K
85¢
$11.0K
80¢
$47.9K
75¢
$37.7K
70¢
$43.3K
65¢
$259.0K
60¢
$23.4K
55¢
$770
50¢
$5.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLG2 (YES)$20.0K@ 99.9¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋38 minutes ago
SELLG2 (YES)$58.4K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$21.2K@ 93.8¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$88.5K@ 65.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYM80 (NO)$10.7K@ 33.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLG2 (YES)$15.4K@ 84.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLG2 (YES)$15.2K@ 84.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$10.8K@ 72.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$30.1K@ 69.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$13.8K@ 69.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 11 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$10.0K@ 68.0¢0xf559…f462🐋about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BUY VWAP 65.1¢·2 fills
BUY VWAP 66.8¢·7 fills
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·13 fills
5e46hG2$21.2K
BUY VWAP 93.8¢·1 fill
AV23IUaG2$13.8K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill
DjdjdjekekekM80$12.9K
BUY VWAP 33.1¢·2 fills
0x0063…2dd2M80$12.5K
BUY VWAP 27.7¢·11 fills
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.