Dota 2: Team Falcons vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner

● quote 120 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 44 minutesLiquidity: $55.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $392.3KEvent: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
99.9¢
YES
17.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets62Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:176 trades$243.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 62%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 135 min agoofficial metadata 124 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$2.9K·2 wallets·$3.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Falcons (YES)$71.4K@ 100¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$71.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$71.4K
6h
−$22.0K
tracked
$243.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$2.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 81% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +16.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 120 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 135 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 124 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 09:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Falcons and LGD Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 2 against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 2 against Team Falcons. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Supremeleader752 linked markets · $330.1K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $266.2K gross
Djdjdjekekek2 linked markets · $137.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Team Falcons@ 84.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.1pp1h UNAVAILABLE
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Falcons@ 70.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 70.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $40 → $883 · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$71.4K
6h−$22.0K
24h−$19.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h87.1¢▲ above by 12.8pp
VWAP 7d87.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$110.2K
90¢
$1.5K
85¢
$25.8K
80¢
$29.3K
75¢
$2.9K
70¢
$51.3K
65¢
$22.7K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Falcons (YES)$71.4K@ 99.9¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLTeam Falcons (YES)$11.9K@ 99.9¢0x7993…cf5a🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$10.0K@ 70.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$15.0K@ 70.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 6 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)
0.1¢$174.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Team Falcons$47.0K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·10 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.