Dota 2: Team Falcons vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 52 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 14 minutesLiquidity: $175.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection42Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:184 trades$688.7K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 65 min agoofficial metadata 53 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTeam Falcons (YES)$149.3K@ 100¢·Supremeleader75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$291.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$291.0K
6h
−$235.8K
tracked
$688.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$96.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +48.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 52 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 65 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 53 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 09:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Falcons and LGD Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 12 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 6h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 6h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Supremeleader752 linked markets · $330.1K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $266.2K gross
Djdjdjekekek2 linked markets · $137.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Team Falcons@ 52.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.0pp1h CONFIRMED +19.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 52.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.0pp1h CONFIRMED +19.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY LGD Gaming@ 21.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +26.0pp1h CONFIRMED +8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY LGD Gaming@ 22.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h CONFIRMED +27.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.6pp · near-book depth $14$36 · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$291.0K
6h$235.8K
24h$216.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h84.6¢▲ above by 15.4pp
VWAP 7d84.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$370.4K
90¢
$4.0K
85¢
$0
80¢
$46.5K
75¢
$109.0K
70¢
$16.8K
65¢
$3.1K
60¢
$2.3K
55¢
$120
50¢
$141.5K
45¢
$71
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Falcons (YES)$149.3K@ 99.9¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLTeam Falcons (YES)$37.3K@ 99.9¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLTeam Falcons (YES)$63.9K@ 99.9¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLTeam Falcons (YES)$35.0K@ 99.9¢0xa7e2…9e36🐋about 2 hours ago
SELLTeam Falcons (YES)$18.1K@ 99.9¢0x733b…7260🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$90.1K@ 53.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$30.0K@ 50.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYLGD Gaming (NO)$47.8K@ 22.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYLGD Gaming (NO)$11.5K@ 23.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYLGD Gaming (NO)$13.9K@ 22.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYLGD Gaming (NO)$18.4K@ 21.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$10.0K@ 82.6¢0x733b…7260🐋about 19 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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0.1¢$174.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75Team Falcons$98.7K
BUY VWAP 52.9¢·4 fills
DjdjdjekekekLGD Gaming$96.6K
BUY VWAP 22.6¢·5 fills
0xe16d…5e30Team Falcons$32.0K
BUY VWAP 50.1¢·2 fills
0x733b…7260Team Falcons$15.0K
BUY VWAP 82.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.