Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner

● quote 65 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $156.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $81.1KEvent: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
37.5¢
YES
62.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection68Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution65Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 100%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:108 trades$124.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 70 min agoofficial metadata 68 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$10.0K@ 59¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$79.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$79.6K
6h
+$79.6K
tracked
$124.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$563 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 100% · priority 67

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 65 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 70 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 68 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 13:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Spirit and Xtreme Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 1 against Xtreme Gaming. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win Game 1 against Team Spirit. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $195.0K gross
0x477b…49222 linked markets · $109 gross
0x9ef9…15992 linked markets · $3 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $202 → $5.6K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$79.6K
6h+$79.6K
24h+$82.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.5¢
VWAP 24h58.6¢▼ below by 21.1pp
VWAP 7d58.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$8.2K
65¢
$6.4K
60¢
$21.7K
55¢
$79.3K
50¢
$8.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$10.0K@ 55.8¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$10.0K@ 59.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$10.0K@ 59.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
58.5¢$979.5Kpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)
29.0¢$85.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30Team Spirit$77.0K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·21 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.