Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

● quote 47 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $117.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage
77.5¢
YES
22.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:76 trades$493.1K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 56 min agoofficial metadata 48 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $71.3K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$217.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYXtreme Gaming (NO)$79.3K@ 40¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$80.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$80.9K
6h
+$123.6K
tracked
$493.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$71.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 52

Since latest deadline positioning: +12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 47 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 56 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 48 minutes old.
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 13:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Spirit and Xtreme Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against Xtreme Gaming. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win the match against Team Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $196.0K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $57.1K gross
0x477b…49222 linked markets · $204 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Spirit@ 66.0¢52m ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Spirit@ 62.0¢52m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Xtreme Gaming@ 36.0¢52m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Xtreme Gaming@ 40.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $9.2K$90.4K · 25s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$80.9K
6h+$123.6K
24h+$123.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current77.5¢
VWAP 24h62.5¢▲ above by 15.0pp
VWAP 7d62.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$43.3K
60¢
$450.9K
55¢
$9
50¢
$3
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Spirit (YES)$35.3K@ 63.0¢0x381b…4d74🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLXtreme Gaming (NO)$25.3K@ 33.1¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$29.5K@ 63.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$34.2K@ 61.0¢0x381b…4d74🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYXtreme Gaming (NO)$79.3K@ 39.8¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$20.0K@ 62.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$32.0K@ 62.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYXtreme Gaming (NO)$11.5K@ 38.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYXtreme Gaming (NO)$45.2K@ 38.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$14.6K@ 63.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$50.0K@ 63.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$10.0K@ 63.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Spirit (YES)$14.6K@ 63.0¢0x6b60…edbe🐋about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner
81.5¢$601.4Kpriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)
51.5¢$85.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekXtreme Gaming$144.2K
BUY VWAP 38.9¢·5 fills
0xe16d…5e30Team Spirit$118.0K
BUY VWAP 62.7¢·6 fills
0x6b60…edbeTeam Spirit$39.0K
BUY VWAP 63.2¢·7 fills
0x381b…4d74Team Spirit$34.2K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Team Spirit$29.5K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.