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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs

● quote 38 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $175.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $123.6KEvent: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets10Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$38.5K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 105 min agoofficial metadata 35 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$1.1K·4 wallets·$11.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (YES)$9.2K@ 67¢·0xbca0…9705

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$10.0K
tracked
$38.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$1.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 38 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 105 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 35 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 19:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for August 16 at 3:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Talvez102 linked markets · $12.9K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $12.2K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $5.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $7.4K → $21 · 110s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$10.0K
24h−$1.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h54.6¢▲ above by 45.3pp
VWAP 7d54.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$6
65¢
$9.2K
60¢
$10
55¢
$9.1K
50¢
$2.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.2K
35¢
$12.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.