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Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)

● quote 158 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $101.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $54.5KEvent: LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
21.5¢
YES
78.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection32Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%
24h sample:6 trades$15.7K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 172 min agoofficial metadata 158 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHanwha Life Esports (YES)$5.9K@ 67¢·retroactivesource

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.0K
6h
−$214
tracked
$15.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 158 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 172 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 158 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Quarterfinal match between Hanwha Life Esports and DN SOOPers in the KeSPA Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 11 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports" if Hanwha Life Esports wins 2 or more games than DN SOOPers in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "DN SOOPers". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
retroactivesource3 linked markets · $81.9K gross
Lakersfan1113 linked markets · $64.2K gross
0x7986…baa52 linked markets · $23.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $1 → $99 · 59s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$5.0K
6h−$214
24h−$214

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current21.5¢
VWAP 24h66.1¢▼ below by 44.6pp
VWAP 7d66.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$10.7K
60¢
$5.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$1
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$2
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$100

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.