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Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: 8 monthsLiquidity: $8.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $43.6KEvent: Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?
41.5¢
YES
58.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$5.5K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 211 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $6.8K net·3 wallets·$6.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$5.7K@ 58¢·fkcvffcjt

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.9K
tracked
$5.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $6.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 211 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-06-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no such Chief Minister takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $1.9K
24hNO · $5.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h43.6¢▼ below by 2.1pp
VWAP 7d42.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$3.9K
65¢
$5.8K
60¢
$1.3K
55¢
$577
50¢
$1.6K
45¢
$9.2K
40¢
← now
$25.6K
35¢
$5.2K
30¢
$2.1K
25¢
$1
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.