Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Billy Harris vs Kyrian Jacquet

PoliticsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $487.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $9.1KEvent: Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Billy Harris vs Kyrian Jacquet
1.6¢
YES
98.4¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:5 trades$17.9K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 142 min agoofficial metadata 129 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKyrian Jacquet (NO)$12.1K@ 98¢·hd777

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$17.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.9K
6h
−$17.9K
tracked
$17.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • Observed tape is 142 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 129 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Billy Harris and Kyrian Jacquet in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Billy Harris' if Billy Harris advances against Kyrian Jacquet. This market will resolve to 'Kyrian Jacquet' if Kyrian Jacquet advances against Billy Harris. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$17.9K
6h$17.9K
24h$17.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.6¢
VWAP 24h4.3¢▼ below by 2.7pp
VWAP 7d4.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$2.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$15.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKyrian Jacquet (NO)$12.1K@ 98.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

hd777Kyrian Jacquet$14.7K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.