Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

● quote 23 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $912.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $293.4KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
5.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:156 trades$102.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$1.9K·2 wallets·$1.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$21.0K@ 70¢·0x8239…d9a3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.7K
6h
−$15.4K
tracked
$102.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$1.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 46

Since latest large flow: +28.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 23 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 28.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for August 17 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $27.0K gross
curie2 linked markets · $1.9K gross
0x4f29…7a7e2 linked markets · $584 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 72.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $23.8K$15 · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$4.7K
6h$15.4K
24h$30.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.0¢
VWAP 24h24.3¢▼ below by 19.3pp
VWAP 7d24.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$68.5K
25¢
$216
20¢
$9.1K
15¢
$4.9K
10¢
$6.5K
5¢
← now
$7.0K
0¢
$6.3K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$21.0K@ 70.0¢0x8239…d9a3🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$13.4K@ 69.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 18 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8239…d9a3Philadelphia Phillies$21.0K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafPhiladelphia Phillies$13.4K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.