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Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 43 minutesLiquidity: $24.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $135.1KEvent: Commanders vs. Cowboys
70.0¢
Cowboys
30.0¢
Commanders
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection48Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$58.6K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCowboys$12.5K@ 52¢·johnny234

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Cowboys pressure: $28.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$28.1K
6h
+$50.8K
tracked
$58.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Cowboys · $1.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 42 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cowboys or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if the Cowboys win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Commanders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if the Cowboys win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Elaran19932 linked markets · $487.3K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r3 linked markets · $215.7K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $76.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cowboys; negative values favor Commanders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCowboys · $28.1K
6hCowboys · $50.8K
24hCowboys · $58.6K

Cowboys price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cowboys price. Commanders fills are converted to the complementary Cowboys probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.0¢
VWAP 24h52.2¢▲ above by 17.8pp
VWAP 7d52.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cowboys price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$72.7K
45¢
$4.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCowboys$10.1K@ 53.0¢0xa0a6…f39c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCowboys$12.5K@ 52.0¢
johnny2340xd38a…8d26
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

johnny234Cowboys$12.5K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
WhattDoyoumeanCowboys$10.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills
0xa0a6…f39cCowboys$10.1K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.