PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 39 minutesLiquidity: $40.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $254.9KEvent: Commanders vs. Cowboys
67.0¢
Cowboys
33.0¢
Commanders
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution68Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%
24h sample:20 trades$116.7K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCowboys$33.7K@ 48¢·0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Cowboys pressure: $3.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.8K
6h
+$29.3K
tracked
$116.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 21.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cowboys or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if the Cowboys win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Commanders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if the Cowboys win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Elaran19932 linked markets · $487.3K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r3 linked markets · $214.5K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $76.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cowboys@ 48.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Commanders DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $2.7K → $1.4K · 60s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cowboys; negative values favor Commanders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCowboys · $3.8K
6hCowboys · $29.3K
24hCowboys · $57.7K

Cowboys price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cowboys price. Commanders fills are converted to the complementary Cowboys probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current67.0¢
VWAP 24h48.0¢▲ above by 19.0pp
VWAP 7d48.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Cowboys price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$116.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCommanders$19.3K@ 52.0¢0xe987…f0e1🐋—40 minutes ago
BUYCowboys$14.4K@ 48.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCommanders$10.1K@ 52.0¢
monkeymashingkeyboard0x684b…8409
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYCowboys$33.7K@ 48.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYCowboys$11.3K@ 48.0¢
VibeDoter0xe4a7…dc87
🐋—about 12 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
0.1¢$433.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$428.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$367.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #9 Group Stage
100.0¢$308.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Coventry City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$307.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Nottingham Forest win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$305.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814Cowboys$33.7K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
0xe987…f0e1Commanders$19.3K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
maz26Cowboys$14.4K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
VibeDoterCowboys$12.4K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills
monkeymashingkeyboardCommanders$10.1K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.