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Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 51.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 41 minutesLiquidity: $35.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $602.8KEvent: Commanders vs. Cowboys
49.5¢
Over
50.5¢
Under
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:63 trades$278.1K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $66.9K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$69.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$37.0K@ 48¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Under pressure: $37.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$37.9K
6h
−$37.9K
tracked
$278.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Over · $66.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Commanders and Cowboys combine to score 52 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 52, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Commanders and Cowboys combine to score 52 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 52, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Elaran19932 linked markets · $487.3K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r3 linked markets · $214.5K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $76.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Over33m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Under@ 53.0¢48m ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 48.0¢48m ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 53.0¢48m ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp
Latest book event: Over UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $90.5K → $82 · 94s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $37.9K
6hUnder · $37.9K
24hUnder · $29.1K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h48.1¢▲ above by 1.4pp
VWAP 7d48.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$4
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.1K
45¢
← now
$276.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$22.6K@ 48.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYOver$37.0K@ 48.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUnder$10.9K@ 52.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUnder$12.5K@ 52.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUnder$10.9K@ 52.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUnder$10.5K@ 52.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYOver$28.8K@ 48.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wr0ngw4yb3tt0rUnder$152.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·30 fills
ferrariChampions2026Over$59.6K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills
PwaddlerOver$28.8K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
mooseborzoiOver$12.1K
BUY VWAP 48.9¢·18 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.