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Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 - Map 1 Winner

● quote 42 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $839.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $382.2KEvent: Counter-Strike: BIG vs G2 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
2.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:87 trades$156.5K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 67 min agoofficial metadata 38 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLG2 (NO)$41.2K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
−$3.4K
tracked
$156.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$4.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 42 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 67 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 38 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-13 19:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between BIG and G2 in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for August 13 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "BIG" if BIG win Map 1 against G2. This market will resolve to "G2" if G2 win Map 1 against BIG. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h3 linked markets · $145.6K gross
0x0063…2dd23 linked markets · $69.6K gross
0x6e2c…787c3 linked markets · $64.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY G2@ 100.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.9pp · near-book depth $24.1K → $984 · 14s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5
6h−$3.4K
24h−$3.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.0¢
VWAP 24h11.4¢▼ below by 9.4pp
VWAP 7d11.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.1K
50¢
$6.5K
45¢
$6.9K
40¢
$3.6K
35¢
$13.1K
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$3.6K
20¢
$1.1K
15¢
$1.7K
10¢
$493
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$117.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLG2 (NO)$14.2K@ 99.9¢0x8c7d…83ed🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLG2 (NO)$41.2K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYG2 (NO)$36.6K@ 96.1¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYG2 (NO)$13.1K@ 97.0¢0x8c7d…83ed🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

5e46hG2$36.6K
BUY VWAP 96.1¢·1 fill
0x8c7d…83edG2$13.1K
BUY VWAP 97.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.