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Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $1.5MOfficial 24h Vol: $60.8KEvent: Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol
14.5¢
YES
85.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly45Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$43.7K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 72%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 48 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $17.7K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$17.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$11.9K@ 85¢·mirotvorets

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$623
6h
−$43.7K
tracked
$43.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $17.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 48 minutes old.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 26, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
purplegatto2 linked markets · $91.1K gross
Forecastication23 linked markets · $34.1K gross
Zzzz872 linked markets · $13.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 86.0¢33m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $623
6hNO · $43.7K
24hNO · $43.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current14.5¢
VWAP 24h15.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d15.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$47.2K
10¢
← now
$28
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.9K@ 85.0¢
mirotvorets0x7d9d…3c52
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNO$11.1K@ 85.0¢
sbsigner0x1b47…d814
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

sbsignerNo$18.4K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·3 fills
mirotvoretsNo$11.9K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.