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Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $211.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $63.1KEvent: Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol - More Markets
58.5¢
Real Madrid CF
41.5¢
Real Sociedad de Fútbol
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$30.4K trackedsource coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 30s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYReal Madrid CF$5.4K@ 54¢·thatguythatguy

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Real Madrid CF pressure: $3.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.0K
6h
+$20.8K
tracked
$30.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Real Madrid CF · $1.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 45

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Real Madrid CF or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF" if Real Madrid CF win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Sociedad de Fútbol".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for August 26 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF" if Real Madrid CF win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Sociedad de Fútbol". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Real Madrid CF; negative values favor Real Sociedad de Fútbol. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hReal Madrid CF · $3.0K
6hReal Madrid CF · $20.8K
24hReal Madrid CF · $26.2K

Real Madrid CF price VWAP

Volume-weighted Real Madrid CF price. Real Sociedad de Fútbol fills are converted to the complementary Real Madrid CF probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h57.4¢▲ above by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d57.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Real Madrid CF price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$25.0K
50¢
$6.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

thatguythatguyReal Madrid CF$14.4K
BUY VWAP 56.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.