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Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner

● quote 91 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $117.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $635.6KEvent: Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Group Stage
4.5¢
YES
95.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:237 trades$192.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 99 min agoofficial metadata 96 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$12.7K@ 65¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.7K
6h
−$59.4K
tracked
$192.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$5.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 49

Since latest confirmed build: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 91 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 99 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 96 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 10:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 3 match between BoomBoys and TEAM VISION in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "BoomBoys" if BoomBoys win Game 2 against TEAM VISION. This market will resolve to "TEAM VISION" if TEAM VISION win Game 2 against BoomBoys. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 14, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e302 linked markets · $306.0K gross
0xc69b…20763 linked markets · $40.0K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $32.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY TEAM VISION2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY TEAM VISION2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY TEAM VISION2h ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY TEAM VISION@ 72.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $119 → $528 · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$4.7K
6h−$59.4K
24h−$59.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.5¢
VWAP 24h35.4¢▼ below by 30.9pp
VWAP 7d35.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$6.6K
50¢
$10.3K
45¢
$5.3K
40¢
$14.1K
35¢
$75.2K
30¢
$56.2K
25¢
$5.8K
20¢
$12.0K
15¢
$1.7K
10¢
$5.7K
5¢
$2
0¢
← now
$239.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTEAM VISION (NO)$14.0K@ 99.9¢0x4572…83ff🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTEAM VISION (NO)$27.7K@ 99.9¢0x2146…d41b🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTEAM VISION (NO)$82.6K@ 99.9¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTEAM VISION (NO)$10.3K@ 99.9¢0x05a7…42e6🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLTEAM VISION (NO)$16.0K@ 99.9¢0x3413…8ff2🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$12.7K@ 65.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYTEAM VISION (NO)$10.0K@ 65.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$481.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Group Stage
3.5¢$231.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30TEAM VISION$23.9K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·11 fills
111111111115TEAM VISION$22.4K
BUY VWAP 65.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.