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Will Geno Ploeger be the runner-up of AGT Season 21?

● quote 10s ago
Culture→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $163Official 24h Vol: $68.5KEvent: America's Got Talent S21: Runner-Up
33.0¢
YES
67.0¢
NO
18.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution1Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%
24h sample:21 trades$21.4K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 103 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$1.8K@ 59¢·0x955c…990f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$15.3K
tracked
$21.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
18.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 103 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 18.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If an act is disqualified or eliminated from competition in the Quarterfinals or Semifinals, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

•If AGT Season 21 concludes without a winning act being declared, or if AGT Season 21 has otherwise not concluded by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the act who finishes as the runner-up of America’s Got Talent (AGT) Season 21. Acts will be ranked primarily by their result in the Finals. If any two acts jointly receive the same result, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the acts’ listed names. This market will resolve to the act that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If an act is disqualified or eliminated from competition in the Quarterfinals or Semifinals, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. If AGT Season 21 concludes without a winning act being declared, or if AGT Season 21 has otherwise not concluded by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be footage from America’s Got Talent.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $15.3K
24hNO · $14.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.0¢
VWAP 24h43.9¢▼ below by 10.9pp
VWAP 7d43.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.6K
45¢
$3.4K
40¢
$10.8K
35¢
$1.3K
30¢
← now
$1.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x955c…990fNo$17.2K
BUY VWAP 57.1¢·14 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.