LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

● quote 60 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.5MOfficial 24h Vol: $402.4KEvent: LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:132 trades$156.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 65 min agoofficial metadata 61 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYEDward Gaming (YES)$20.8K@ 100¢·fkgggg2mouzfuria

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$23.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$23.1K
6h
+$23.8K
tracked
$156.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$2.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 60 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 65 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 61 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between EDward Gaming and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against EDward Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, the 7-day (168-hour) delay period will be measured from the originally scheduled start time of August 21, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET to the rescheduled start time. If the rescheduled start time falls more than 168 hours after the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve to 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If no rescheduled start time falling within that 168-hour period has been announced by August 28, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is rescheduled to a start time within 168 hours of the originally scheduled start time, this market will resolve based on the result of the match as played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf2f2…05502 linked markets · $138.5K gross
0xe100…4d412 linked markets · $41.2K gross
0x141a…d05a2 linked markets · $39.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 2.6pp · near-book depth $44.9K$25.0K · 33s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$23.1K
6h+$23.8K
24h+$15.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h67.0¢▲ above by 33.0pp
VWAP 7d67.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$45.5K
90¢
$166
85¢
$6
80¢
$6.1K
75¢
$0
70¢
$29.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.6K
55¢
$33
50¢
$1.1K
45¢
$18.0K
40¢
$52.8K
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$13
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYEDward Gaming (YES)$20.8K@ 99.9¢
fkgggg2mouzfuria0x52ec…a6f3
🐋about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fkgggg2mouzfuriaEDward Gaming$20.8K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
sbsignerThunderTalk Gaming$10.7K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.