Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs

● quote just now
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $603.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs
53.5¢
YES
46.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:242 trades$633.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$177.8K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$271.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$89.8K@ 55¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$15.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$15.8K
6h
+$140.0K
tracked
$633.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$177.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 59

Since latest counter flow: -3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 12:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 1 match between Team Liquid and Team Falcons in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Team Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Djdjdjekekek3 linked markets · $671.1K gross
0x73b1…bd8b2 linked markets · $219.8K gross
Sisyphus.2 linked markets · $162.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

COUNTER FLOWBUY NO@ 50.0¢7m ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Team Liquid@ 40.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Falcons@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Team Liquid@ 55.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -25.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$15.8K
6h+$140.0K
24h+$140.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h47.9¢▲ above by 5.6pp
VWAP 7d47.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$27.5K
50¢
← now
$428.6K
45¢
$8.3K
40¢
$24.7K
35¢
$18.0K
30¢
$41.2K
25¢
$84.6K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$26.2K@ 47.0¢0xc69b…2076🐋9 minutes ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$46.7K@ 72.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$11.1K@ 30.0¢0x547f…2937🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$10.0K@ 71.8¢0x733b…7260🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$10.6K@ 42.5¢0x547f…2937🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$12.3K@ 55.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$89.8K@ 54.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$48.9K@ 54.3¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$21.9K@ 54.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$19.5K@ 54.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$14.0K@ 47.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$26.3K@ 53.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$10.6K@ 53.0¢
tb1020x1896…a7d6
🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$14.4K@ 48.0¢
thatguythatguy0x3170…c6a0
🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekTeam Liquid$218.6K
BUY VWAP 54.5¢·6 fills
0x2c33…0563Team Falcons$46.7K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·1 fill
0xc69b…2076Team Falcons$45.9K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·19 fills
0x547f…2937Team Liquid$33.1K
BUY VWAP 34.6¢·5 fills
0xe16d…5e30Team Falcons$25.0K
BUY VWAP 47.2¢·3 fills
tb102Team Liquid$16.2K
BUY VWAP 53.3¢·2 fills
thatguythatguyTeam Falcons$14.4K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
0xa048…f2b5Team Falcons$12.7K
BUY VWAP 71.7¢·3 fills
0x733b…7260Team Falcons$10.0K
BUY VWAP 71.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.