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Cincinnati Open: Novak Djokovic vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

● quote 7689 min ago
Geopolitics→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $1.2MOfficial 24h Vol: $2.6MEvent: Cincinnati Open: Novak Djokovic vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
59.0¢
YES
43.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$107.4K·7 wallets(2🐋)·$145.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$36.5K@ 100¢·0xf377…4159

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$138.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$138.6K
6h
+$229.9K
tracked
$978.3K

7 verified profitable wallets: +$107.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 267 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 7689 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 7697 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 7676 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Novak Djokovic' if Novak Djokovic advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Novak Djokovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Thiago Agustin Tirante@ 21.0¢5d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Thiago Agustin Tirante@ 31.0¢5d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Thiago Agustin Tirante@ 48.0¢5d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Novak Djokovic@ 40.0¢5d ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$138.6K
6h+$229.9K
24h+$233.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.0¢
VWAP 24h49.8¢▲ above by 9.2pp
VWAP 7d49.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.3K
90¢
$22.0K
85¢
$61.3K
80¢
$101.5K
75¢
$84.0K
70¢
$8.0K
65¢
$3.3K
60¢
$101.2K
55¢
← now
$100.6K
50¢
$41.7K
45¢
$24.9K
40¢
$38.6K
35¢
$137.7K
30¢
$101.8K
25¢
$6
20¢
$0
15¢
$2.1K
10¢
$6.3K
5¢
$8
0¢
$142.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$11.5K@ 99.9¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—5 days ago
SELLThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$12.3K@ 99.9¢0xff80…9b4d🐋—5 days ago
SELLThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$20.9K@ 99.9¢0x6b91…06c4🐋—5 days ago
SELLThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$25.0K@ 99.9¢0x8002…8b6c🐋—5 days ago
SELLThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$36.5K@ 99.9¢0xf377…4159🐋—5 days ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$11.7K@ 62.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—5 days ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$25.4K@ 65.7¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—5 days ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$11.7K@ 65.0¢
highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21
🐋—5 days ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$19.3K@ 68.6¢
highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNovak Djokovic (YES)$20.6K@ 39.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—5 days ago
SELLThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$10.2K@ 38.3¢0x5f65…2036🐋—5 days ago
SELLThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$11.4K@ 37.7¢0xe394…289c🐋—5 days ago
BUYNovak Djokovic (YES)$13.3K@ 80.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—5 days ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$16.8K@ 19.9¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—5 days ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante (NO)$17.5K@ 19.8¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—5 days ago
BUYNovak Djokovic (YES)$11.9K@ 89.9¢0xb38a…3293🐋—5 days ago
BUYNovak Djokovic (YES)$15.9K@ 92.0¢0x8002…8b6c🐋—5 days ago
BUYNovak Djokovic (YES)$12.3K@ 88.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNovak Djokovic (YES)$15.4K@ 83.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNovak Djokovic (YES)$18.5K@ 87.0¢0x81f6…4488🐋—5 days ago
BUYNovak Djokovic (YES)$11.0K@ 79.0¢0x8002…8b6c🐋—6 days ago
BUYNovak Djokovic (YES)$11.3K@ 77.0¢0x5ba6…0f07🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe30e…6b87Thiago Agustin Tirante$128.6K
BUY VWAP 31.2¢·12 fills
0xe907…cff6Novak Djokovic$47.6K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·6 fills
highnetworthThiago Agustin Tirante$46.6K
BUY VWAP 66.5¢·6 fills
ferrariChampions2026Novak Djokovic$44.5K
BUY VWAP 39.8¢·8 fills
0F62Novak Djokovic$36.3K
BUY VWAP 85.3¢·4 fills
0x2c33…0563Novak Djokovic$33.4K
BUY VWAP 59.1¢·4 fills
0x8002…8b6cNovak Djokovic$26.9K
BUY VWAP 86.2¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cNovak Djokovic$22.4K
BUY VWAP 42.1¢·14 fills
0x81f6…4488Novak Djokovic$18.5K
BUY VWAP 87.0¢·1 fill
RN1Novak Djokovic$12.5K
BUY VWAP 37.6¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.