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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $160.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $587.1KEvent: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
93.0¢
YES
7.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:139 trades$230.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.6K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$22.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCincinnati Reds (NO)$14.3K@ 71¢·coinlaundry

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$25.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$25.2K
6h
+$15.2K
tracked
$230.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$1.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +68.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 68.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 16:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 20 at 12:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
SDTrading2 linked markets · $68.7K gross
0x5e94…5ba12 linked markets · $38.7K gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $36.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Cincinnati Reds@ 74.0¢22m ago
15m CONFIRMED +63.2pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $7 → $8 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$25.2K
6h+$15.2K
24h+$28.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current93.0¢
VWAP 24h44.0¢▲ above by 49.0pp
VWAP 7d44.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$431
90¢
← now
$20.1K
85¢
$8.3K
80¢
$49
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.3K
65¢
$10.0K
60¢
$7.8K
55¢
$5.9K
50¢
$58.5K
45¢
$340
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.9K
30¢
$32.8K
25¢
$34.5K
20¢
$22.7K
15¢
$11.7K
10¢
$13.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLCincinnati Reds (NO)$13.6K@ 68.0¢0x8853…c058🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCincinnati Reds (NO)$14.3K@ 71.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (YES)$10.0K@ 65.0¢0x1e38…fd47🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (YES)$10.0K@ 51.0¢
dv-pm0x56ac…d77e
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5268…135dCincinnati Reds$18.6K
BUY VWAP 70.3¢·4 fills
coinlaundryCincinnati Reds$16.3K
BUY VWAP 70.9¢·3 fills
0x5268…135dSt. Louis Cardinals$14.4K
BUY VWAP 47.2¢·5 fills
0x1b47…d814St. Louis Cardinals$12.4K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·2 fills
dv-pmSt. Louis Cardinals$10.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
0x1e38…fd47St. Louis Cardinals$10.0K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.